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Employment Litigation and Job Loss

Governor Wilson, in his State of the State address, called for measures to reduce employer exposure to liability for wrongful termination. The Governor cited a study by Rand Corporation economists which, according to the Governor, concluded that out-of-control claims by plaintiffs' lawyers have cost California 650,000 jobs. The Rand study, however, does not support the Governor's conclusions. It could be that alarmists, like the Governor, are causing more job losses than is any amount of litigation.

Rand economists James Dertouzos, Elaine Holland, Patricia Ebener and Lynn Karoly published a series of papers in the late 1980's and early 1990's analyzing information about wrongful termination litigation gathered from 1980 through 1986. Those studies never concluded that wrongful termination litigation has cost California 650,000 jobs. That number was derived from an extrapolation of the Rand studies' comparisons of different states. The 1992 Rand paper, Labor-Market Responses to Employer Liability, which is specifically the one to which the Governor alluded, stated that: "We also find evidence of an employment effect when states are differentiated on the basis of whether tort and/or contract remedies are available. For instance, the adoption of a tort cause of action (i.e. public-policy tort or good-faith tort) results in about a 3-percent reduction in employment." The 650,000 job figure, then, is 3 percent of California's workforce.

However, the data studied by Rand are quite old. Among other significant changes since 1986 are California Supreme Court cases substantially limiting the tort remedies available to plaintiffs in wrongful termination cases. (e.g. Foley v. Interactive Data Corp. (1988) 47 Cal.3d 654, 254 Cal.Rptr. 211, 765 P.2d 373, and Hunter v. Up-Right, Inc. (1995) 6 Cal.4th 1174, 864 P.2d 88, 26 Cal.Rptr.2d 8.)

The Rand studies did conclude that the costs of wrongful termination litigation and liability were very small. The 1992 Rand paper concluded that: "Despite the existence of large jury awards, our first investigation of the economic effects of wrongful termination demonstrated that the direct legal costs (measured as legal fees, settlement payments and jury awards) appear to be quite small. A sample of cases filed in California indicates that the typical plaintiff can expect to receive a final payment that, in present value terms, amounts to half a year's salary. Even accounting for the 95 percent of cases that settle prior to trial, the aggregate direct legal costs of wrongful termination litigation amount to less than $10 per employee, or $100 on a per-termination basis. ...the aggregate legal costs are only about 0.1 percent of the total wage bill."

One tenth of one percent of total wages paid to California workers is a huge amount of money. To put it in perspective, however, what employee would not be willing to pay $10 to $12 to support an infrastructure designed to protect him or her against terminations in breach of contract, violation of public policy, or even in bad faith? Thus, if the specter of legal costs is not so menacing, what is the source of concern? The Rand studies conclude that the true costs of wrongful termination litigation come from employers' fear of such litigation.

The 1992 Rand paper explained: "However, either because firms are extremely risk averse or because decisionmakers are avoiding what could be larger liabilities, the indirect economic effects of wrongful termination are significant. [W]e estimate that the employment response to increased wrongful-termination liability is consistent with about a ten percent increase in wages. This implies that the indirect effects of wrongful-termination doctrines are 100 times more costly than the direct legal costs of jury awards, settlement and attorney fees."

Those indirect costs are described in more detail: "In attempting to avoid the liability, firms may adopt preventive measures that themselves represent hidden or indirect costs of the new legal environment. For example, firms may avoid the liability by not terminating employees who are poor performers. When workers are fired, severance payments may be used to prevent the threat of a wrongful termination suit. In periods of expansion, firms may be less willing to add to their work force, preferring instead to expand overtime hours or use temporary workers for whom the liability costs are lower. In addition to altering their utilization of labor, firms may adjust their internal decisionmaking processes, requiring more screening when workers are hired, more formalized review and evaluation procedures, and less autonomy regarding termination decisions. These types of indirect costs may overwhelm the smaller direct legal costs of wrongful termination."

As much as these dire consequences appear to justify the Governor's call for reform, the problem is that employers' worries may not be rational. That is, as real as these results might be, they may be only symptoms of a sort of legal hypochondria, where the fear of liability causes more damage than could any real exposure. As the 1992 Rand paper states: "[B]ecause of misperceptions or a lack of accurate information, businesses and managers may simply not have accurate information about the true costs of the liability associated with the new legal doctrines. Even with accurate information...firms and managers may be extremely risk averse, so that they attempt to avoid even the small probability of a very large wrongful-termination award."

Moreover, there are benefits to greater protections for employees that must be taken into account and weighed against the costs. According to the 1992 Rand paper: "Whether or not these changes are desirable depends upon whether or not there are compensating benefits to employees, firms, or society at large. Surely, some workers benefit from the enhanced job security, and others receive compensation in isolated cases of egregious employer behavior. The limitations on manager discretion in firing employees could also be more generally efficient, with benefits accruing to firms as well. If so, firms may already have incentives to adopt job security provisions and mechanisms to protect employees against mistreatment. However, the legal system reduces uncertainty about the enforceability of the implicit agreement and provides an external guarantee, thus enabling management and labor to reap the mutual benefits of a long-run employment relationship. Workers are willing to invest in firm-specific human capital, are willing to work to enhance long-term firm profitability, and may be willing to accept a lower wage rate in return for job security."

By contributing to the misinformation and hysteria that surrounds the debate over tort reform, those proposing such reforms may be actually causing the problem.
 
 
 
 
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125 Park Place, Suite 210, Point Richmond, CA 94801   Phone: 510.237.6916   Fax: 510.236.9851
2200 Powell Street, Suite 890, Emeryville, CA 94608 Phone: 510.237.6916   Fax: 510.236.9851
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